Law or Politics? Examining the Intervention of Iraqi and Kurdistan Region Administrations
Introduction: The Ongoing Struggle Between Law and Power The political and legal relationship between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has long been marked by ambiguity, tension, and cycles of conflict. Unless Iraq’s constitutional uncertainties are resolved and there is genuine political will for power-sharing, disputes will continue to surface—shifting from legal interpretations […]
Iraq’s budget shortfall crisis: can oil revenues save the second half of 2025?
Can Iraq’s Oil Revenues Plug the 2025 Budget Gap in H2? Probably not. Benchmark forecasts put oil at $60–$70 per barrel in 2025, while the IMF says Iraq needs ~$80 to fully fund its budget. Revenues (oil and non-oil) fell in the first five months, and spending typically accelerates in the second half. Unless Iraq […]
Sarsang Oil Field Attack and the Hamrin Oil & Gas Contracts: Five Key Questions
A drone attack halted 30,000 bpd at Sarsang just hours before Iraq signed a Hamrin development contract with HKN Energy (60,000 bpd oil; 45–50 MMcf/d gas). The strike signals technical superiority, an intent to curb Kurdistan Region output, and a political warning tied to U.S. pressure on Iraqi oil sales. Production in the Kurdistan Region […]
A Decade of the Kurdistan Region Salary Crisis: What the Numbers Really Show
Key takeaways (30-second read) The gap between Baghdad’s hiring/pay practices and the Kurdistan Region’s realities has widened over 10 years. Federal Iraq added 1.18M+ civil servants in a decade; the Kurdistan Region’s public payroll shrunk by ~19,339. Durable solutions require transparent data and either internal fiscal redesign in the Kurdistan Region or time-bound, decision-maker-level negotiations […]
Building a Strong, Capable Iraq Will Shape Its Foreign Policy
Introduction: A Vision for a Strong Iraq Emerging from two decades of turbulence and conflict, Iraq is entering a new chapter. On June 27, Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani pledged in his Eid message to build a “strong and capable Iraq.” While some skeptics view this ambition as overly optimistic, the government has already taken […]
Iraq: Will Parliamentary Elections Be Delayed Until Spring 2022?
Election Postponement and Political Relief A series of marathon meetings between Iraq’s three presidencies, the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), the UN Secretary-General in Iraq, and key political parties led to the decision to postpone the elections. The IHEC complied, and the Council of Ministers approved the move. Political parties, many unprepared for the polls, […]
